Manny Pacquiao Betting Odds History: Favourite or Underdog in His Biggest Fights

Sports · Updated 21 Oct 2026 · By the BetGabay Editorial Team

Manny Pacquiao's career is one of boxing's great stories, and his betting history tells it from a different angle. He won some of his most famous fights as the underdog, and lost some of his most shocking ones as a heavy favourite. For Filipino fans who bet with their hearts, that history is a useful lesson in how odds actually work.

Below is a fight-by-fight look at how the market saw Pacquiao in his biggest bouts. Odds varied between sportsbooks and moved before each fight, so we describe them in approximate terms based on widely reported closing lines rather than quoting one exact number. For his current situation and next fight, see our Manny Pacquiao betting odds page, and for boxing betting in general, our boxing betting Philippines guide.

Kaugnay na gabay: Boxing Betting Philippines: From Pacquiao Nights to Props

Pacquiao's odds history at a glance

Even this short list makes the point: the favourite doesn't always win, and the underdog isn't always a long shot for no reason.

The underdog years: how Pacquiao made his name

Barrera, 2003

Before facing Marco Antonio Barrera in San Antonio, Pacquiao was known to hardcore fans but not yet a global star. Barrera was the established Mexican great, and the market made him a clear favourite. Pacquiao dominated and stopped him in the eleventh round. For many international fans, it was the moment Pacquiao became a name, and for bettors it was an early example of a market underrating a fighter's speed and power on the way up.

De La Hoya, 2008

The "Dream Match" saw Pacquiao move up to welterweight against Oscar De La Hoya, a bigger and more famous fighter. Size was the main argument for De La Hoya, and he went in as the favourite. Pacquiao's speed overwhelmed him, and De La Hoya retired on his stool after eight rounds. It's still one of the clearest cases of a market putting too much weight on size and reputation.

The peak: Pacquiao as favourite

Hatton and Cotto, 2009

By 2009, the market had caught up. Pacquiao was favoured against Ricky Hatton and won with a brutal second-round knockout. Against Miguel Cotto later that year, he was again favoured, and stopped Cotto in the twelfth round. When a fighter is at his peak and the market fully recognises it, backing him often means accepting short prices with little room for profit. Those wins were "right," but bettors earned far less than they had on Barrera or De La Hoya.

2012: two shocks in one year

Bradley I

Against Timothy Bradley, Pacquiao was a heavy favourite. Most observers and many ringside scorers thought he won comfortably, but two of the three judges gave the fight to Bradley by split decision. It's a key lesson for boxing bettors: judges can surprise anyone, and a heavy favourite's price leaves no margin for a controversial scorecard. Pacquiao won the rematch in 2014.

Márquez IV

The fourth fight against Juan Manuel Márquez ended with one of the most famous knockouts of the era: Márquez caught Pacquiao with a right hand at the end of the sixth round. Pacquiao had been favoured. Rivalries with many close previous fights are hard to price, because both men know each other so well. The result reminded everyone that knockout power can flip any boxing market in a single punch.

2015: the Mayweather mega-fight

The long-awaited fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr. drew record betting interest worldwide. Mayweather, unbeaten and a defensive master, was the favourite, and Pacquiao the underdog. Large amounts of public money, including many Filipino fans, came in on Pacquiao, but the sharpest bettors generally sided with Mayweather. Mayweather won a unanimous decision. Pacquiao later revealed a shoulder injury he'd carried into the fight.

For bettors, this fight showed how heavy public support for a popular fighter can shorten his price without changing his chances. Remember too that bets were settled on the official result, regardless of injury news afterwards.

2017: the Horn upset

Against Australia's Jeff Horn in Brisbane, Pacquiao was a very heavy favourite. Horn was awarded a unanimous decision in front of a home crowd, a result widely criticised. For anyone who had put a large stake on Pacquiao at a short price, it was a painful lesson: heavy favourites need to win far more than four times out of five just to be fair value, and away venues with unpredictable judging add extra risk.

2019: Thurman, the veteran underdog

At 40, Pacquiao faced Keith Thurman, an unbeaten welterweight champion more than a decade younger. The market leaned toward Thurman, making Pacquiao a slight underdog. Pacquiao knocked Thurman down in the first round and won a split decision. It was another case where age was priced heavily, perhaps too heavily, against a fighter who was still elite.

2021: Ugás, and age catches up

Pacquiao was scheduled to face Errol Spence Jr., but Spence withdrew with an eye injury. Yordenis Ugás stepped in on short notice. Pacquiao was the favourite against a late replacement, but Ugás won a clear unanimous decision. Pacquiao retired soon after. Late-replacement fights are notoriously tricky to price: the favourite has prepared for a different opponent, and the market often rates the replacement on name recognition rather than form.

2025: the Barrios comeback draw

After four years away, Pacquiao returned at 46 to challenge WBC welterweight champion Mario Barrios in Las Vegas in July 2025. Reports of the betting market differed between books, but it was a competitive fight. The result was a majority draw. Under many sportsbooks' rules, a draw voids two-way moneyline bets (stakes returned) but makes both fighters lose in three-way markets, where the draw is its own outcome. Many fans who bet on Pacquiao in a three-way market lost on a result most of them thought was at least a draw in his favour.

What Pacquiao's odds history teaches bettors

1. Heavy favourites aren't safe

Bradley I, Márquez IV, Horn and Ugás all involved Pacquiao as a favourite, some heavily. A favourite at 1.20 needs to win about 83% of the time just to break even. Boxing, with judges and one-punch knockouts, is a sport where that's a big ask.

2. Underdogs can be underrated, especially on the way up

Barrera and De La Hoya show how markets can be slow to recognise a rising fighter. Today's equivalents are young fighters moving up in weight or level.

3. Judges matter

Several of Pacquiao's most discussed results were decisions criticised by fans and media. If you're betting on a decision outcome, venue and judging history matter.

4. Public money shortens popular fighters

The "Pacquiao premium" is real: when a national hero fights, the volume of emotional bets can make his price shorter than a neutral view would justify. That doesn't mean he loses; it means his backers get paid less than they should.

5. Know how draws are settled

The Barrios fight is the perfect example. Two-way and three-way markets settle very differently on a draw.

6. Late changes are dangerous

Replacement opponents and injury news change fights. Read rules on what happens to your bet if the opponent changes; most books void bets when a named fighter is replaced.

How to convert those old odds into probabilities

If you look up historical lines, they're often in American format. Here's how to read them:

Implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds. Both sides together add up to more than 100%; the extra is the bookmaker's margin. Our betting odds explained guide shows how to remove it.

Markets beyond the moneyline

For big Pacquiao fights, books offered method of victory (KO/TKO or decision), round betting, total rounds, and "fight to go the distance" markets. Pacquiao's later career featured more decisions than early-career knockouts, so "Pacquiao by decision" was often priced differently to "Pacquiao by KO." Our boxing method of victory guide explains these markets.

Taglish recap

Hindi laging nananalo ang paborito sa odds. Nanalo si Pacquiao bilang underdog laban kina Barrera, De La Hoya at Thurman, pero natalo siya bilang paborito kina Bradley (unang laban), Márquez (ikaapat), Horn at Ugás. Draw ang laban kay Barrios noong 2025, at natalo ang mga tumaya sa three-way market. Ang aral: tingnan ang presyo, hindi ang puso, at alamin kung paano sine-settle ang draw.

Responsible betting

Betting on a national hero is part of the fun for many fans, but keep stakes small and separate from loyalty. Only adults 21 and over may bet in the Philippines, and PAGCOR rules bar students and government employees. If you're betting more than you planned, take a break; support is on our responsible gambling page.